Xbox One, PS4 Will Each Ship 2.5 to 3 Million in 2013, Says Analyst

One analyst weighs in with a prediction of Q4 console shipment numbers.

During the fourth quarter, Xbox One and PlayStation 4 will each see in the neighborhood of 2.5 to 3 million units shipped, according to a new report by Baird analyst Colin Sebastian.
Those expected figures encompass worldwide shipments of the two consoles. The bulk of those will be shipped in North America, with Sebastian stating he expects 1.5 to 2 million units of each console to be made available there.

"While many forecasts still give an edge to Sony/PS4 in North America sales, we continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window," Sebastian's note reads. "Our shipment unit forecasts are slightly below consensus of 3 million or more for each platform."
Sebastian also discussed the resale market for both new consoles, and if early data is any indication, turning to eBay after retailers sell out of either console will be a pricey proposition. "[B]oth Sony and Microsoft are generally sold out of their initial unit shipments of PS4 and Xbox One, respectively. As a gauge of the popularity of the new consoles, we note that sales on eBay of Xbox One preorders average close to $800 (vs. base price of $499) and PS4’s for close to $600 (vs. $399 base price) - both healthy premiums.

"In addition, retailers in our checks indicate there is consumer demand well in excess of supply, as evidenced by fast sell-outs of incremental unit allotments, such as at GameStop," Sebastian wrote. "Looking further ahead, we still believe a more accurate gauge of new cycle demand should be made after the initial sales window, dominated by core gamer fans."
We are now less than a month away from the release of PlayStation 4 (November 15 in North America, November 29 in Europe and Australia) and Xbox One (November 22 in North America, parts of Europe, and Australia). Both systems will have significant patches available on their respective launch days, and there will be ways to upgrade current-gen versions of certain games to Xbox One or PS4 versions.
Are you among those fortunate enough to have a pre-order that will allow you to pick up either of the systems on launch day? Let us know in the comments.